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LarrainVial See Signs Of Economic Recovery, CODELCO Rating Under Review

CHILE
  • According to LarrainVial director of research, Chile’s economy is bottoming out and showing signs of recovery. Chile’s non-mining Imacec should grow 1% y/y in 2H with most growth concentrated in 4Q23. LarrainVial expect zero growth for 2023 and 2% in 2024. Regarding the policy rate they expect BCCh to cut 75bps next week and expect the monetary policy report “will deliver an accommodative bias, contingent on a core CPI with a downward trajectory”. MPR cuts should continue until it reaches at least 5.75% in 2024. They don’t expect MPR to fall below the Fed rate.
  • CODELCO rating has been placed on watch negative from outlook stable by Moody’s. The review action recognizes the major operational challenges currently faced by Codelco, which, together with structural declines in ore grades, have led to significant declines in production volumes.
  • Chile’s Finance Ministry offers to sell more of its BTP debt due in 2050 and BTU bonds due in 2050. Chile also publishes the unemployment rate for July, which is estimated at 8.7% (prior 8.5%), according to a Bloomberg survey (1400BST/0900ET).
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