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LATAM: Summary – October 09

LATAM
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • IPCA inflation data will be published in Brazil on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the headline rate to rise to 4.44% y/y in September, from 4.24%. In Mexico headline inflation is expected to fall to around 4.6% y/y, from 4.99%, while core inflation is also seen dipping below 4% in September.
  • In the US, the Fed minutes release later today could shed further light on the decision to semi-surprise markets with a 50bp vs a 25bp cut to begin the easing cycle. It's to be expected that the discussion over the future rate path will revolve around a data-dependent/meeting-by-meeting approach, but the characterisation of the decision to cut 50bp will be of note. Speakers on Wednesday include the Fed's Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee and Jefferson, with Collins and Daly after the close, covering a variety of issues. ECB's Villeroy is also set to appear in Paris at the London close.
  • USD - The greenback trades marginally firmer, with a wave of dollar demand coinciding with a soft European equity open. Concerns over Chinese stimulus should remain a key topic for the rest of the week - an announcement that the Chinese Ministry of Finance will hold a briefing on policy this Saturday failed to underpin sentiment. The CSI-300 closed lower by 7% after a late phase of selling pressure.
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  • IPCA inflation data will be published in Brazil on Wednesday, with analysts expecting the headline rate to rise to 4.44% y/y in September, from 4.24%. In Mexico headline inflation is expected to fall to around 4.6% y/y, from 4.99%, while core inflation is also seen dipping below 4% in September.
  • In the US, the Fed minutes release later today could shed further light on the decision to semi-surprise markets with a 50bp vs a 25bp cut to begin the easing cycle. It's to be expected that the discussion over the future rate path will revolve around a data-dependent/meeting-by-meeting approach, but the characterisation of the decision to cut 50bp will be of note. Speakers on Wednesday include the Fed's Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee and Jefferson, with Collins and Daly after the close, covering a variety of issues. ECB's Villeroy is also set to appear in Paris at the London close.
  • USD - The greenback trades marginally firmer, with a wave of dollar demand coinciding with a soft European equity open. Concerns over Chinese stimulus should remain a key topic for the rest of the week - an announcement that the Chinese Ministry of Finance will hold a briefing on policy this Saturday failed to underpin sentiment. The CSI-300 closed lower by 7% after a late phase of selling pressure.