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LATAM: Summary – September 03

LATAM
  • Focus on Tuesday will turn to the BCCh monetary policy meeting, where a majority of analysts expect a 25bp cut to 5.50%. On the data front, Brazil Q2 GDP growth is expected to edge up to 2.7% y/y, while Mexico unemployment and gross fixed investment and Colombia July exports are also due. In the US, the manufacturing ISM is expected to have ticked up to 47.5 from 46.8 previously. Last week's MNI Chicago PMI came in modestly ahead of expectations, which may be setting the tone here.
  • Global news:
    • US - Vice President Kamala Harris sought to shore up the support of organised labour in so-called "blue wall" states at the end of the holiday weekend, stressing that union members had a binary choice in November between her and former president Donald Trump, a candidate she said has a history of being hostile to workers. Harris campaigned in Michigan on Monday, then headed to Pennsylvania, where she addressed steelworkers alongside President Biden.
    • EU - Decisions at the ECB are set to become more contentious once the key rate falls to about 3% and clashes emerge over what’s still needed to keep inflation in check, according to people familiar with the matter. While the next two or three reductions in the deposit rate are unlikely to cause major friction, the debate will then encounter differing views of both the price outlook and the point where monetary policy stops restraining economic growth.
    • JAPAN - BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices perform as expected, a comment that supported further gains in the yen. Ueda made the remark in a document submitted to a government panel chaired by outgoing PM Kishida in which he explained the BoJ’s July policy decision.
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