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LATAM: Summary – September 12

LATAM
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Attention will be on the BCRP MPC meeting later today, where the recent fall in core inflation and weak activity keeps the door open for another 25bp cut to 5.25%. On the data front, Brazil retail sales figures for July are due, while Mexico August nominal wages may also cross.
  • In the G10, focus will be on the ECB rate decision. We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so. Moreover, indications of back-to-back cuts would undermine President Lagarde’s previous assertion that policy rates will not necessarily move lower in a linear fashion. Aside from the ECB, US PPI data and initial jobless claims highlight the economic calendar.
  • USDJPY - The impressive recovery for major equity benchmarks late Wednesday and subsequent consolidation at the highs this morning has provided a sense of calm across currency markets. In line with this sentiment, the Japanese yen is softer on the day, and USDJPY currently trades in the middle of its relatively contained 80 pip range, after rising as high as 143.04 in early European trade.
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  • Attention will be on the BCRP MPC meeting later today, where the recent fall in core inflation and weak activity keeps the door open for another 25bp cut to 5.25%. On the data front, Brazil retail sales figures for July are due, while Mexico August nominal wages may also cross.
  • In the G10, focus will be on the ECB rate decision. We would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so. Moreover, indications of back-to-back cuts would undermine President Lagarde’s previous assertion that policy rates will not necessarily move lower in a linear fashion. Aside from the ECB, US PPI data and initial jobless claims highlight the economic calendar.
  • USDJPY - The impressive recovery for major equity benchmarks late Wednesday and subsequent consolidation at the highs this morning has provided a sense of calm across currency markets. In line with this sentiment, the Japanese yen is softer on the day, and USDJPY currently trades in the middle of its relatively contained 80 pip range, after rising as high as 143.04 in early European trade.