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LATAM: Week Ahead: Banxico Rate Decision, Copom Minutes, BCB QIR, BCCh Minutes

LATAM
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  • Focus next week will be on Banxico’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday, where another rate cut is widely expected. Although MXN weakness could be a concern, the Fed’s bolder move to initiate its easing cycle should provide the board with room to continue easing. Elsewhere, the Copom minutes and BCB quarterly inflation report will be of interest following this week’s Selic rate hike, while mid-month CPI data are due in both Mexico and Brazil.
    • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, where analysts’ inflation forecasts will remain of particular interest. This will be followed by the minutes to the September BCCh meeting, when the central bank cut by 25bp to 5.50% and signalled a faster convergence to the neutral interest rate ahead. Elsewhere, Mexico retail sales and economic activity for July will also cross, with the market expecting a slight pick-up in growth at the start of Q3.
    • Focus will turn to the Copom minutes on Tuesday for any clues as to the likelihood that the committee will step up the tightening pace in coming meetings. Chile August PPI data are also due, as are bi-weekly CPI numbers in Mexico, where headline and core inflation are expected to tick down further, ahead of this week’s Banxico meeting.
    • On Wednesday, Brazil will publish half-month IPCA inflation data, alongside August current account and FDI figures. In Chile, the BCCh will release its latest traders survey, while Argentina July economic activity is also expected.
    • Banxico is expected to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut on Thursday, supported by further progress on disinflation and concerns surrounding growth. Meanwhile, the BCB will publish its Q3 quarterly inflation report, which again will be watched closely for any clues on the possible interest rate path ahead.
    • The week wraps up with Brazil outstanding loans, budget balance and unemployment, and Mexico trade on Friday, all for August. Argentina Q2 current account data will also cross.
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  • Focus next week will be on Banxico’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday, where another rate cut is widely expected. Although MXN weakness could be a concern, the Fed’s bolder move to initiate its easing cycle should provide the board with room to continue easing. Elsewhere, the Copom minutes and BCB quarterly inflation report will be of interest following this week’s Selic rate hike, while mid-month CPI data are due in both Mexico and Brazil.
    • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey on Monday, where analysts’ inflation forecasts will remain of particular interest. This will be followed by the minutes to the September BCCh meeting, when the central bank cut by 25bp to 5.50% and signalled a faster convergence to the neutral interest rate ahead. Elsewhere, Mexico retail sales and economic activity for July will also cross, with the market expecting a slight pick-up in growth at the start of Q3.
    • Focus will turn to the Copom minutes on Tuesday for any clues as to the likelihood that the committee will step up the tightening pace in coming meetings. Chile August PPI data are also due, as are bi-weekly CPI numbers in Mexico, where headline and core inflation are expected to tick down further, ahead of this week’s Banxico meeting.
    • On Wednesday, Brazil will publish half-month IPCA inflation data, alongside August current account and FDI figures. In Chile, the BCCh will release its latest traders survey, while Argentina July economic activity is also expected.
    • Banxico is expected to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut on Thursday, supported by further progress on disinflation and concerns surrounding growth. Meanwhile, the BCB will publish its Q3 quarterly inflation report, which again will be watched closely for any clues on the possible interest rate path ahead.
    • The week wraps up with Brazil outstanding loans, budget balance and unemployment, and Mexico trade on Friday, all for August. Argentina Q2 current account data will also cross.