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LATAM: Week Ahead: Brazil Q3 GDP & IP, Peru, Chile, Colombia CPI Inflation

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  • After the focus on Brazilian fiscal developments in recent days, next week sees the release of Q3 GDP stats and latest industrial production figures in Brazil, both of which are expected to show a pick-up in annual growth. Elsewhere, November CPI inflation figures are due in Peru, Chile and Colombia, ahead of monetary policy meetings in mid-December.
    • Peru CPI inflation for November will be published on Sunday, with some analysts noting that tracked pricing data point to monthly inflation of 0.1% m/m, which would lift annual inflation from 2.0% to 2.3% y/y.
    • Chile’s economic activity index (IMACEC) will cross on Monday, with recent activity data pointing to a pick-up in growth in October. In Brazil, the weekly BCB Focus survey will once again be of interest amid the recent pressure on BRL and concern over rising inflation expectations. Selic rate forecasts look set to rise once again. Elsewhere, Mexico remittances and the latest Banxico economist survey are due, while regional PMI data, Colombia Q3 current account and Argentina tax revenue figures will cross.
    • On Tuesday, Brazil Q3 GDP is expected to rise by a further 0.7% q/q and 3.9% y/y, while in Mexico October unemployment and September gross fixed investment numbers are due.
    • Brazil industrial production is set to edge up by another 0.2% m/m in October on Wednesday, with annual growth accelerating to 6.0% y/y. This will be followed by services PMI figures for November and Colombia export stats.
    • Chile nominal wages for October cross on Thursday, while in Brazil the trade surplus is expected to widen to $6.5bn in November. Elsewhere, the BCRA releases its latest analyst survey, while Citi publishes its economist survey in Mexico.
    • On Friday, CPI inflation figures for November are released in Chile and Colombia. While there is no consensus yet for Chile, Colombia headline inflation is expected to moderate further to 5.1% y/y. Latest Argentina IP data are also due.
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  • After the focus on Brazilian fiscal developments in recent days, next week sees the release of Q3 GDP stats and latest industrial production figures in Brazil, both of which are expected to show a pick-up in annual growth. Elsewhere, November CPI inflation figures are due in Peru, Chile and Colombia, ahead of monetary policy meetings in mid-December.
    • Peru CPI inflation for November will be published on Sunday, with some analysts noting that tracked pricing data point to monthly inflation of 0.1% m/m, which would lift annual inflation from 2.0% to 2.3% y/y.
    • Chile’s economic activity index (IMACEC) will cross on Monday, with recent activity data pointing to a pick-up in growth in October. In Brazil, the weekly BCB Focus survey will once again be of interest amid the recent pressure on BRL and concern over rising inflation expectations. Selic rate forecasts look set to rise once again. Elsewhere, Mexico remittances and the latest Banxico economist survey are due, while regional PMI data, Colombia Q3 current account and Argentina tax revenue figures will cross.
    • On Tuesday, Brazil Q3 GDP is expected to rise by a further 0.7% q/q and 3.9% y/y, while in Mexico October unemployment and September gross fixed investment numbers are due.
    • Brazil industrial production is set to edge up by another 0.2% m/m in October on Wednesday, with annual growth accelerating to 6.0% y/y. This will be followed by services PMI figures for November and Colombia export stats.
    • Chile nominal wages for October cross on Thursday, while in Brazil the trade surplus is expected to widen to $6.5bn in November. Elsewhere, the BCRA releases its latest analyst survey, while Citi publishes its economist survey in Mexico.
    • On Friday, CPI inflation figures for November are released in Chile and Colombia. While there is no consensus yet for Chile, Colombia headline inflation is expected to moderate further to 5.1% y/y. Latest Argentina IP data are also due.