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*** Late Block,..................>

US EURODLR OPTIONS: *** Late Block, 1542:50-1543:19ET, Adding to MASSIVE
mid-week put fly build
* +50,000 short Mar 63/66/68 2x3x1 put flys, 2.25 net/package. Adds to 200k
Blocked largely at 1.75 on Wednesday, another 11.8k this morning at 2.0.The size
of the positions suggests strong investor conviction towards the upper end of
economists' consensus forecasts for the Fed Funds rate over the next couple of
years. The median forecast is for the Fed Funds rate to reach and hold at 3.00%
by mid-2019, according to Bloomberg. Relevance and timing of the massive trade
coincides with Goldman Sachs reiterating their Fed hike expectations Wednesday
of two more 25bps increases for 2018 with an additional three hikes in 2019,
putting the fed funds rate at 3.25 (assuming a total of five 25bps hikes through
2019). The massive option play underscores this view (96.62 center strike
compares to current EDH0 (March 2020) futures level of 98.89).

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