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Late Burst Puts BoE Peak Pricing At 1-Month High; ECB Up For 7th Day

STIR

Helped by a late burst into the close, BoE terminal rate pricing rose to a 1-month high for the 3rd consecutive session Thursday, with ECB peak pricing up for the 7th consecutive day.

  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +10.5bp to 6.14% (89bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024) - With today's increase, BoE pricing has risen 41bp in the past 5 sessions. September pricing ticked up over 1bp and is now showing better than 1/3 chances of a 50bp hike; 55bp of total tightening is priced through the next two meetings. UK retail sales data awaits Friday morning.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +0.8bp to 3.97% to Dec 2023 (21bp of further hikes left in the cycle), highest since Jul 26th. There's 15bp of a hike priced for the September meeting (ie 60% prob of a 25bp hike), with 19bp priced through the next two meetings cumulatively.

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