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Late Curve Consolidation

US TSYS
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  • Treasuries continued to gain Monday, amid ongoing speculation over more than a 25bp rate cut from the Fed at this Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement (including the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections).
  • Tsy curves initially bull steepened to new 3+ year highs in the first half (2s10s 9.809), before reversing course (2s10s -.909 at 5.775) in the second half as intermediate to long end bonds outperformed.
  • Dec'24 10Y climbed to 115-19.5 high (+6), 30s +17 at 127-08. TYZ4 still shy of initial technical resistance at 115-23.5 (high Sep 11).
  • Carry-over support in underlying futures (SFRU4 +.025 at 95.17; SFRZ4 +0.035 at 96.00) remains strong as speculation over more than a 25bp rate cut Wednesday. Projected rate hikes through year end look largely steady vs. early morning levels (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -41.0bp (-40.6bp), Nov'24 cumulative -78.2bp (-79.1bp), Dec'24 -119.8bp (-120.0bp).
  • Note, huge large SOFR steepener blocked at 1004:31ET - position supporting more aggressive rate cut guidance from the Fed, before moderating policy in Q1 '26: +81,500 SFRH5 96.62, post time offer vs. -81,500 SFRH6 97.175, sell through 97.19 post time.
  • Focus turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales precedes Wednesday's FOMC annc at 1400ET.
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  • Treasuries continued to gain Monday, amid ongoing speculation over more than a 25bp rate cut from the Fed at this Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement (including the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections).
  • Tsy curves initially bull steepened to new 3+ year highs in the first half (2s10s 9.809), before reversing course (2s10s -.909 at 5.775) in the second half as intermediate to long end bonds outperformed.
  • Dec'24 10Y climbed to 115-19.5 high (+6), 30s +17 at 127-08. TYZ4 still shy of initial technical resistance at 115-23.5 (high Sep 11).
  • Carry-over support in underlying futures (SFRU4 +.025 at 95.17; SFRZ4 +0.035 at 96.00) remains strong as speculation over more than a 25bp rate cut Wednesday. Projected rate hikes through year end look largely steady vs. early morning levels (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -41.0bp (-40.6bp), Nov'24 cumulative -78.2bp (-79.1bp), Dec'24 -119.8bp (-120.0bp).
  • Note, huge large SOFR steepener blocked at 1004:31ET - position supporting more aggressive rate cut guidance from the Fed, before moderating policy in Q1 '26: +81,500 SFRH5 96.62, post time offer vs. -81,500 SFRH6 97.175, sell through 97.19 post time.
  • Focus turns to Tuesday's Retail Sales precedes Wednesday's FOMC annc at 1400ET.