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Mixed Trade Pre/Post Data, Implied Vol Lower


(H2) Key Support Still Intact


USDCAD drops 40 pips post Canadian data


Reversing Initial Bid Post-Data

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  • The dollar strengthened in the latter half of the US session, in line with higher US yields and amid a slightly more cautious tone for risk. This will likely bring a six-day losing streak for the dollar index to a halt.
  • Broad commodity weakness lent support to the greenback overall, causing risk-tied G10 currencies to halt their most recent trends higher.
  • AUDUSD and NZDUSD suffered losses in the region of 0.75%, with Kiwi reversing the entirety of yesterday's gains and also putting an end to a run of six winning sessions. Additionally, with USDJPY dipping back below 114 and risk suffering, crossJPY was a notable laggard on Thursday.
  • USDJPY matched the Oct 15 lows at 113.65 and any further yen strength may target the 113.00 low from Oct 12, although USDJPY dips are still considered technically corrective.
  • Elsewhere the CHF also garnered some support, with EURCHF dipping back below 1.07 and to the lowest levels since November 2020. Some analysts have noted this may increase the likelihood of additional SNB intervention.
  • In the EM space, the moves were more pronounced. A CBRT surprise 200bps rate cut prompted a near 3% sell off in TRY, closely followed by significant drops in high beta currencies such as ZAR and BRL.
  • A fairly busy European data docket on Friday, with UK retail sales preceding European Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Canadian August retail sales are also due.
  • Fed Chair Powell will feature in a policy panel discussion w/ SARB before going into media blackout through the November FOMC meeting.