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Late Markets Summary, Tsys Back Near Highs, Stocks Off Lows

US TSYS
  • US Treasury futures have drifted back near session highs in late trade, yield curves re-steepen with short end outperforming: 2s10s little off earlier highs of -87.579. Front-month 2Y futures back near early session high of 102-10.75 as implied rate hikes slipping lower again.
  • The Fed terminal rate has now fallen back to 5.27% in July'23, down nearly 45bps from Thursday. Fed funds implied now pricing around 33bps for the March meeting.
  • From a technical perspective, front month 10Y futures have extended the current corrective bull phase. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMA earlier, the latter at 112-31+. The clear break opens 113-15+, a Fibonacci retracement, for direction.
  • US equities remain weaker in late trade, the e-mini S&P futures attempting to recover from broad based selling tied to bank stocks. While many had rebounded ahead midday, risk appetite was poor after FDIC took over failed SVIB, appointed receiver.
  • Front-month SPX futures are well off midmorning high of 3937.25, currently at 3873.0, after breaching support of 3869.38 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle.
  • Focus turns to next Tuesday's CPI data: MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); YoY (6.4%, 6.0%) next key inflation metric for the Fed to determine policy. Reminder, Fed enters media Blackout at midnight tonight.
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