Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

Option desks reported better low delta call trade in SOFR and Treasury options Wednesday, as underlying futures rebounded in late trade. No surprises following the September FOMC minute release (majority saw one hike, keeping rates higher for longer), while the nomination of Scalise to replace McCarthy as House speaker appeared to improve risk sentiment somewhat.

• Safe haven bid as Lebanon/Israel exchanged rocket fire in addition to mildly dovish Fed speak from Gov Bowman overnight helped push TYZ3 back to late September levels (108-11 high, +20), the contract +87 at 107-31 in late trade. Rally has in turn tempered rate hike projections into early 2024: November at 9.8% compared to 30.5% late Fri, w/ implied rate change of +2.5bp to 5.353%, December cumulative of 7.4bp at 5.403%, January 2024 6.4bp at 5.392%. Fed terminal at 5.405% in Jan'24.
• SOFR Options:
  • over 24,000 SFRZ3 94.68/94.75/94.81/94.87 call condors ref 94.565 to -.575
  • Block, 5,000 SFRZ3 94.56/95.00 call spds, 6.5 ref 94.57
  • +10,000 SFRZ3 94.68/94.81 call spds 0.75 vs. 94.58/0.10%
  • +1,000 SFRZ3 94.56/94.68/94.75 1x3x2 call flys, 4.75
  • +2,500 0QZ3 96.00/97.00 call spds, 9.5
  • +2,000 SFRX3 94.62/94.75 call spds, 1.25
  • Block, -5,000 SFRH4 95.50/96.00 call psds, 3.0 vs. 94.675/0.07%
  • Block, +10,000 SFRX3 94.37/94.50 put spds, 2 vs. 94.575/0.20% +7.5k more on screen
  • 2,000 SFRX3 94.62/94.81 call spds ref 94.58
  • 6,250 SFRX3 94.62/94.68/94.75 call flys ref 98.58
  • 2,000 2QZ3 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 put condors ref 96.085
  • 2,000 2QZ3 95.50/95.62/96.00/96.12 put condors ref 96.085
  • 2,000 0QZ3 95.50/96.50 call spds vs. 3QZ3 96.25/97.25 call spds
  • 1,500 2QX3/2QZ3 96.06/96.43/96.93 broken call fly spd
  • 1,000 3QV3 96.12/96.25 call spds ref 96.06
• Treasury Options:
  • 5,000 TYZ3 103 puts, 7 ref 108-00
  • over 5,100 FVZ3 105 puts, 39.5 last ref 105-12.25
  • 2,500 TYZ3 111 calls, 24 last ref 108-08
  • 2,000 USX3 117 calls, 26 ref 113-14
  • over 5,900 TYX3 109 calls, 32 ref 108-07.5
  • 4,500 TYX3 104/105 put spds vs. TYX3 110/111 call spds
  • 1,000 USX3 116/117 call spds, 6 ref 113-15
  • 2,800 TYZ3 105.5 puts, 24 ref 108-03.5
  • 4,200 FVX3 106 calls, 22 ref 105-17.5
  • 1,500 TYZ3 110 calls, 31 ref 107-27