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Late Tsy Roundup: Implied Hike Steady at 25.9Bp Ahead Wed FOMC

US TSYS
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  • Tsys mildly weaker after the bell, well off late morning lows to near middle of range through early overnight trade. Tsy 30YY currently 3.6306 -.0091, vs. 3.6845% high)
    • Higher than expected Japanese CPI data overnight (+4.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN 4.0%; Dec 3.9%) got the ball rolling overnight, Tsys extending lows ahead the NY open.
    • Tsys see-sawed off lows drawing modest buying in intermediates to long end after largely in-line data: personal income +0.2%; NOM PCE -0.2%, modest lower revision to prior. Little react to midmorning Pending Home Sales (+2.5% MOM; -33.8% YOY) and UofM sentiment 64.9; est. 64.6.
    • Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 at 25.9bp (-0.7), Mar'23 cumulative at 46.4bp (-0.5) to 4.793%, May'23 56.9bp (+.1) to 4.898%, terminal at 4.905% in Jun'23.
    • Focus on next week Wed's FOMC policy annc, dovish risks to this meeting appear at least partly priced in, including some expectations of Statement language acknowledging decelerating inflation, or a clear signal that the end of the hiking cycle is near.
    • Next employment report covering January out next Friday as well, current median est at +175k vs. +223k prior..
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  • Tsys mildly weaker after the bell, well off late morning lows to near middle of range through early overnight trade. Tsy 30YY currently 3.6306 -.0091, vs. 3.6845% high)
    • Higher than expected Japanese CPI data overnight (+4.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN 4.0%; Dec 3.9%) got the ball rolling overnight, Tsys extending lows ahead the NY open.
    • Tsys see-sawed off lows drawing modest buying in intermediates to long end after largely in-line data: personal income +0.2%; NOM PCE -0.2%, modest lower revision to prior. Little react to midmorning Pending Home Sales (+2.5% MOM; -33.8% YOY) and UofM sentiment 64.9; est. 64.6.
    • Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 at 25.9bp (-0.7), Mar'23 cumulative at 46.4bp (-0.5) to 4.793%, May'23 56.9bp (+.1) to 4.898%, terminal at 4.905% in Jun'23.
    • Focus on next week Wed's FOMC policy annc, dovish risks to this meeting appear at least partly priced in, including some expectations of Statement language acknowledging decelerating inflation, or a clear signal that the end of the hiking cycle is near.
    • Next employment report covering January out next Friday as well, current median est at +175k vs. +223k prior..