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Latest BVA Poll Has Macron 53% (-1.5), Le Pen 47% (+1.5)

FRANCE

Latest polling from outlet BVA has incumbent President Emmanuel Macron retaining a shrinking lead over right-wing Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen, with both candidates likely to make the second round following Sunday's first round vote.

  • BVA first round poll: Macron (EC-RE): 26% (-1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 23% (+2), Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 17.5% (+2), Zemmour (REC-NI): 9.5%, Pécresse (LR-EPP): 8.5% (-1). +/- vs. 30 - 31 March. Fieldwork: 6 - 7 April 2022. Sample size: 1,010
  • BVA second round poll: Macron: 53% (-1.5), Le Pen: 47% (+1.5). +/- vs. 30 - 31 March. Fieldwork: 6 - 7 April 2022. Sample size: 1,010
  • BVA second round pollL Macron: 58% (-4), Melenchon: 42% (+4). +/- vs. 30 - 31 March. Fieldwork: 6 - 7 April 2022. Sample size: 1,010
  • Polling assessing voters confidence in candidates ability to serve as president shows Le Pen with the highest confidence rating, but also a high rating of people who would be 'worried' by her presidency, hinting at an unstable social landscape should she pull off a shock win. Thirty-three percent would be confident in a Le Pen presidency, compared to 30% for Macron, while 49% would be worried by a Le Pen presidency compared to 42% for Macron.
Chart 1. Would you be confident, indifferent, or worried if (X) were elected president?

Source: BVA. Confident-blue, indifferent-grey, worried-red.

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