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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Fed Funds futures pricing has pulled back marginally in the past couple hours but remains substantially higher than after CPI.
- Feb pricing (FFG2) has pulled back to ~3.5bps priced having fleetingly touched nearer 7.5bps on Bullard, helped by Daly and Barkin comments (below).
- For specific meetings, March is close to where it sat after Fed commentary last night (+46bps) but further out pricing remains stronger, with over 100bps following June, per Bullard's wish, and 166bps for 2022 as a whole.
- Post CPI Fedspeak:
- Bullard (2022): Favours 50bp increase and 100bps by the beginning of H2. Should be open to considering inter-meeting increase
- Daly (2024): March live and should hike but sending a stronger signal with a 50bp hike “is not my preference”.
- Barkin (2024): Have to be convinced if 50bp increase needed but open conceptually. We have a lot more data before March FOMC meeting.
Meeting | ~1hr post CPI | Latest |
Mar | +36bp | +46bp |
May | +69bp | +76bp |
Jun | +91bp | +103bp |
July | +109bp | +120bp |
Sep | +127bp | +141bp |
Nov | +137bp | +152bp |
Dec | +154bp | +166bp |
Fed Funds Futures Meeting Pricing. March (yellow), June (white) and December (green)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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