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The latest opinion poll ahead of the 1 June special election for New Mexico's first congressional district shows Democratic candidate Melanie Stansbury with a sizeable lead over her Republican opponent Mark Moores.
- RRH Elections/Elections Daily poll: Stansbury (Dem): 54%, Moore (Republican): 36%, Dunn (Independent): 5%, Manning (Libertarian): 3%. Fieldwork: 18-21 May 2021, Sample size: 555, (Undecided Excluded).
- RRH Elections/Elections Daily poll: Stansbury (Dem): 49%, Moore (Republican): 33%, Dunn (Independent): 5%, Manning (Libertarian): 3%, Undecided: 9%. Fieldwork: 18-21 May 2021, Sample size: 555.
- The Democrats are widely expected to hold onto the seat, vacated by Deb Haaland who now serves as President Joe Biden's Secretary of the Interior.
- As of 20 May, Inside Elections deems the seat 'solid Democrat', while Sabato's Crystal Ball puts it as 'likely Democrat'.
- Holding onto New Mexico's first congressional district seen as crucial for the Democrats, who hold 219 seats in the US House of Representatives to the Republicans' 211, with five seats vacant. The loss of any more seats/gains for the Republicans increases the prospect of small groups of Democratic lawmakers extracting concessions from Democratic leaders in exchange for their votes.