Latest Polls Shift Away From Independence, SNP As Vaccine Boosts Union

The latest opinion polls coming out of Scotland in the last 24 hours have shown a small but important shift in public support away from Scottish independence and towards remaining as part of the United Kingdom.

• YouGov poll: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 49% (-2), No: 51% (+2). +/- vs. 6-10 Nov. Fieldwork: 4-8 March 2021. Sample size: 1,100
• Savanta ComRes poll: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 49% (-3), No: 51% (+3). +/- vs. 26 Feb - 4 Mar. Fieldwork: 5-10 March 2021. Sample size: 1,009
• These are the fifth and sixth polls respectively in a row showing more support for remaining as part of the UK than becoming independent after a period of nine months during 2020 and early 2021 in which every poll showed more support for independence than the Union.
• Polling for the May Scottish parliament elections also shows a growing prospect that the governing pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) may not win an outright majority at Holyrood, something seen as an overwhelming likelihood only weeks ago.
• Support for independence and the SNP appears to be waning as the UK's vaccine rollout (coordinated by the UK gov't in Westminster) is progressing at a rapid pace. Also damaging SNP chances is the ongoing scandal involving former First Minister Alex Salmond, who has accused the SNP leadership surrounding current First Minister Nicola Sturgeon of conspiring to have him imprisoned over sexual harassment claims.