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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
The risk of a recession around mid-year has moderated in the December update of the six months-ahead recession probability model. This is consistent with the better than expected GDP data for the last quarter of 2022, low and stable unemployment and improving economic sentiment. This result is suggesting that the euro area may be able to avoid recession but if there is one, it is likely to be shallow.
- The estimation from 1985 shows a 55% recession probability for mid-2023 down from 63% the previous month. It has been at or above 50% for the last 5 months signalling a possible recession from February 2023.
- The 1998 estimation has been indicating a slightly higher probability of a future recession and has also been above 50% for 5 months. The latest estimate moderated to 56% from 70% last month.
- Higher real equity prices, less negative real 10-year yields and lower real oil prices in euros helped to reduce the risk of a recession, as well as the rise in the EC’s economic sentiment indicator.
Euro area recession probability in 6 months estimations
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/EABCN.org
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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