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Latest Round Of Regional Bank Worry Leaves Footprints In X-ccy Basis
The latest round of U.S. regional bank/CRE worry (centred on NYC Bancorp’s Wednesday earnings release/dividend markdown/worry re: certain credit matters) is generally seen as a contained issue, although the KBW index is ~4% lower vs. Tuesday’s closing levels, while the S&P regional bank ETF (KRE) is the best part of 9% lower and Aozora Bank’s Tokyo listing has experienced a heavy sell off in the wake of a warning re: FY net loss due to its exposure to U.S. office loans.
- This has evoked memories of the early ’23 U.S. regional banking crisis, with the impending end of the Fed’s BTFP scheme also factoring into discussions as well.
- We stress that most still see this as a fairly contained issue, unlike the early ’23 situation.
- Still, funding markets have seen a bit of a reaction to the news with 3-month USD cross-currency basis metrics (vs. EUR, JPY & GBP) all moving lower on the NYC Bancorp news.
- Here we flag that the moves have been contained, also pointing to a lack of systemic threat, albeit with the access to USD demanding a little more premium than was seen in the early part of the week.
The latest round of U.S. regional bank/CRE worry (centred on NYC Bancorp’s Wednesday earnings release/dividend markdown/worry re: certain credit matters) is generally seen as a contained issue, although the KBW index is ~4% lower vs. Tuesday’s closing levels, while the S&P regional bank ETF (KRE) is the best part of 9% lower and Aozora Bank’s Tokyo listing has experienced a heavy sell off in the wake of a warning re: FY net loss due to its exposure to U.S. office loans.
- This has evoked memories of the early ’23 U.S. regional banking crisis, with the impending end of the Fed’s BTFP scheme also factoring into discussions as well.
- We stress that most still see this as a fairly contained issue, unlike the early ’23 situation.
- Still, funding markets have seen a bit of a reaction to the news with 3-month USD cross-currency basis metrics (vs. EUR, JPY & GBP) all moving lower on the NYC Bancorp news.
- Here we flag that the moves have been contained, also pointing to a lack of systemic threat, albeit with the access to USD demanding a little more premium than was seen in the early part of the week.
Fig. 1: USD 3-month Cross-Currency Basis Vs. EUR, GBP & JPY
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.