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Leading Index Continues To Signal Recession Over Next 12 Months

US DATA
  • The Conference Board Leading Index fell -0.3% M/M in January as expected, following a -0.8% drop in December.
  • The annual growth rate ticked up slightly but the trajectory of the 6-monnthgrowth rate continues to signal a recession over the next 12 months.
  • From the press release (here): “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating manufacturing new orders, consumers’ expectations of business conditions, and credit conditions more than offset strengths in labor markets and stock prices to drive the index lower in the month. “
  • “The contribution of the yield spread component of the LEI also turned negative in the last two months, which is often a signal of recession to come.”


Source: Conference Board

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