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Leading Index Misses, No Let Up In Deterioration

US DATA
  • The Conference Board leading index fell by more than expected in November, down -1.0% M/M (cons -0.5) in no let up after -0.9% M/M in Oct (initially -0.8).
  • Senior Director Ozyildirim: "Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November. Labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth. Interest rate spread and manufacturing new orders components were essentially unchanged in November, confirming a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.”
  • “We project a US recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year”



Source: Conference Board

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