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Leading Index Points To Fragile But Not Recessionary Growth Outlook

US DATA
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  • The Conference Board’s leading index fell more than expected in Mar (-0.3% M/M vs cons -0.1%) but after an upward revision (+0.2% M/M vs initial +0.1%).
  • The February uptick remains the first increase since Feb 2022.
  • From the press release: “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.”
  • “The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy.”

Source: Conference Board

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  • The Conference Board’s leading index fell more than expected in Mar (-0.3% M/M vs cons -0.1%) but after an upward revision (+0.2% M/M vs initial +0.1%).
  • The February uptick remains the first increase since Feb 2022.
  • From the press release: “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.”
  • “The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy.”

Source: Conference Board