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Leading Index Supports Slide In ISM Services

US DATA
  • The Leading Index saw its third consecutive circa -1% M/M decline in December, pushing the index down -7.4% Y/Y.
  • Consistent with the latest sharp turn lower in ISM Services, this is the largest decline its seen since 2009 outside of Apr and May 2020 (trough -10.3% Y/Y).
  • Both remain in stark contrast to tracking estimates such as the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimating Q4 GDP growth between 3.5-4% annualized.
  • Within the details, only two of the ten indicators that comprise the LEI increased on the month: manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.

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