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Leading Indicator Declines For Seventeenth Month

US DATA
  • The Conference Board Leading Indicator fared slightly better than expected, falling -0.4% M/M in August (cons -0.5) after an upward revised -0.3% (initial -0.4).
  • It’s the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline and with the index down 3.8% over the six-month period between Feb-Aug’23 for little change from the 3.9% contraction over the prior six months.
  • Declines were this month led by “weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions.”
  • “All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.”

Source: Conference Board

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