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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The Conference Board's Leading Index for April disappointed, coming in at -0.3% M/M vs a flat reading expected - and prior was revised down to +0.1% from +0.3%.
- As the name implies, the LEI is typically a good indicator of the direction of overall US economic growth, with a modest lead (the Conference Board says it anticipates turning points in the business cycle by 7 months - see chart).
- As such, the flat/negative performance in Mar / Apr bodes ill for growth in mid-year, and for now the March index high of 119.50 remains the high of the current cycle.
- There may be a few reasons to see April's weak reading as an aberration: one of the 10 components that go into the indicator, initial jobless claims, rose in April vs March, but from a 50+-year low up to still-low levels - so not exactly weak.
- That's not to say a higher figure should be expected in May. The S&P 500 component was flat in April on average vs March but equities have dived in May; also, building permits and weak consumer confidence weighed in April and that could easily be repeated going forward.
- Overall, the next couple of months' LEI could and likely will offer further evidence that US economic activity has peaked.
Source: Conference Board
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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