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Leading Indicators Continue To Point To Lower Growth (1/2)

GLOBAL

The OECD's latest set of Composite Leading Indicators released today showed further signs of below-trend growth later in 2022 and early 2023.

  • OECD countries in aggregate saw their fourth consecutive month of below-average (below 100) economic momentum vs long-term trend, with the cyclical peak having been hit in July 2021.
  • The OECD's leading indicators lead moves in economic activity by 6-9 months. The chart below shows that while global activity has come off the peak, the drop in the LEI to the lowest level since Nov 2020.
  • The current measures are consistent with swiftly cooling global activity by the end of this year and into next year.

Source: OECD LEI, Dallas Fed Activity Index, MNI

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