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Early opinion polling ahead of Chile's November presidential election shows two potential left-wing candidates leading in the first round, with the likely main centre-right alliance candidate in third place.

  • First Round, Criteria / Agenda Criteria poll: Jiles (PH, left): 18% (+7), Jadue (PCCh, left): 16% (+3), Lavin (UDI, conservative): 13% (-1). +/- 26-30 March '21. Fieldwork: 29 April-3 May '21 Sample size: 1,592
  • Second Round Lavin vs Jadue scenario, Criteria / Agenda Criteria poll: Lavín (UDI, conservative): 54%, Jadue (PCCh, left): 46%. Fieldwork: 29 April-3 May '21. Sample size: 1,592
  • Second Round Lavin vs Jiles scenario, Criteria / Agenda Criteria poll: Jiles (PH, left): 53%, Lavín (UDI, conservative): 47%, Fieldwork: 29 April-3 May '21. Sample size: 1,592
  • It should be noted that the main centre-left Constituent Unity alliance and centre-right Chile Vamos alliance do not hold their primaries until 4 July. After this point with candidates selected we could see the two selected make gains on the Communist candidate Daniel Jadue and the Humanist Party candidate Pamela Jiles.
  • However, there will be observers wary that in neighbouring Peru, which like Chile has experienced political upheaval in recent years, a far-left candidate has made it to the second round of the presidential election amidst a fractured political landscape. With the left polling well early in the presidential race, there is little reason to expect a similar outcome in Chile is impossible.