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LEI Sees Smallest Decline Since Mar 2022, But Continues To Signal Recession Risk

US DATA
  • The Conference Board leading economic index fell by less than expected in December, down -0.1% M/M (cons -0.3) after -0.5%.
  • It marks the first beat since the August report and is only the third beat for the past year, whilst it’s also the smallest decline since a flat print in Mar 2022.
  • From the press release: “Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence.”
  • “As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead.”
  • “Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.”

Source: Conference Board

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