SWEDEN
Swedish lending growth continued its gradual recovery in January, with household loan growth at 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.6% prior) and non-financial corporate (i.e. business) growth at -0.5% Y/Y (vs -0.8% prior). Riksbank rate cuts are continuing to feed through into the real economy, which is contributing to a more tentative approach to monetary policy going forward.
- This was the highest annual household growth rate since April 2023, and the highest business growth rate since December 2023.
- Housing loans account for 83% of total household lending. The average floating mortgage rate (up to 3 months, accounting for ~70% of total housing loans) eased to 3.3% (vs 3.5% prior) in January, while the average rate on 1-5-year fixed rate mortgages was steady at 2.9%.
January trade data was also released this morning, posting a merchandise trade surplus of SEK15.1bln (vs SEK5.4bln prior). On a 12-month rolling basis, the goods trade surplus rose to SEK74.2bln (vs SEK71.8bln prior).
- In Q4 overall, the volume of exports fell 1% Y/Y while import volumes were unchanged. Exports of engineering products (volume) fell 5% Y/Y, driven by road vehicles (-14% Y/Y).
- US President Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on EU auto imports from April 2, though a formal announcement has not yet been made. Sweden would be affected by these tariffs, which poses a risk to recent SEK strength. See here for more.
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