Les Republicains Reject Coalition w/Macron, Could Struggle To Form Gov't

The president of the centre-right Les Republicains (LR) Christian Jacob has stated that - following a meeting with President Emmanuel Macron - "There is no question of betraying those who have trusted us," following the National Assembly election and that his party would not be going into coalition with Macron's Ensemble alliance.

• Should LR be able to maintain unity between is pro-EU Gaullist and right-wing nationalist wings (the former may be more inclined to work w/Macron) it will deal a sizeable blow to the prospect of a stable majority gov't being formed in the National Assembly. There remains the prospect centrist LR members could seek to support a Macron gov't.
• The parliamentary arithmetic for Ensemble forming a stable majority now becomes more difficult. Should the bloc gain the support of the centre-left Socialist Party and environmentalist European Ecology-The Greens, then it would hold a majority. But while these parties will sit as independent blocs within the National Assembly, they ran in the election as part of the leftists NUPES alliance, formed explicitly by various leftist parties to deny Macron a majority. Working with Ensemble could be seen as a betrayal by PS and EELV voters.
• Should no formal coalition be possible, Macron's group could seek support from members on a bill-by-bill basis, but this would result in a very slow passage of watered-down legislation as each deputy is courted by gov't members.
• The 'nuclear' option is the calling of a snap election in the coming months in an effort to break the deadlock. This could result in even worse results for Macron, now seen as a wounded political figure. The far-right National Rally won a record-high 89 seats despite what observers have described as a lacklustre campaign from leader Marine Le Pen. A snap election could see a more energetic campaign from the right that makes the prospect of a Macron majority even less likely.

Source: Interior Ministry, MNI