Liberals And Far-Right Gain In Estonian Polling As New Gov't Takes Charge

Latest opinion polls from Estonia show a jump in support for the centre-right liberal Reform Party (ER) as it settles into its new position at the head of a grand coalition gov't with the populist big-tent Centre Party (EK). They also show a jump in support for the right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party of Estonia (which was part of the previous gov't).

• Turu-uuringute poll: Reform: 27% (+6), Centre: 20% (-5), Conservative People's Party: 17% (+3), Estonia200: 14% (-6), Social Democrats: 8% (-1), Fatherland: 6% (+1), Greens: 3%. +/-vs. 27 November – 7 December 2020. Fieldwork: 12 - 21 January 2021. Sample size: 1,008
• Norstat poll: Reform: 32% (+3), Centre: 21% (-1), Conservative People's Party: 19% (+3), Estonia200: 15% (+1), Fatherland: 5% (-2), Social Democrats: 5% (-3), Greens: 2% (-1). +/- vs. 12 - 18 January 2021. Fieldwork: 18 - 25 January 2021. Sample size: 1,000
• The new ER-EK gov't, led by PM Kaja Kallas (daughter of former Estonian PM Slim Kallas), holds a comfortable majority in the Riigikogu (Parliament). However, the two parties are historic adversaries and it remains to be seen if the two can work together effectively in gov't, raising the risk of policy instability.