Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling ahead of the 22 October presidential election shows right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei and Economy Minister Sergio Massa from the Peronist Union for the Homeland (UP) leading in the race to go through to a second round run-off that would take place on 19 November. It should be noted that given the close margins in most polling and the propensity for Argentine elections to deliver surprises (see the PASO primaries in August), conservative Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) candidate Patricia Bullrich cannot be discounted from making the final two.
- Polling over the final week of September gave Milei an average of 32.7% support, with Massa on 30.6% and Bullrich on 25.5%.
- Of the three most likely scenarios, Milei vs. Massa has the widest ideological and policy split in terms of potential winners. Milei vs Bullrich would see a notable shift to the right in policy making in either outcome. Bullrich vs Massa would preclude the prospect of full dollarisation and major cutbacks in gov't spending.
- Massa has sought to distance himself from the left-wing populist agenda of the Peronist movement, saying he would bring individuals from Bullrich and Milei's camp into gov't if he won.
- Bullrich has proposed a half-way house between Milei's dollarisation and maintaining the peso, advocating for 'binmonetarism', where the use of the US dollar would be legalised for certain official circumstances but the peso used more generally.
Chart 1. Argentina Presidential Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average
Source: CEOP, CB Consultora, UdeSA, Circuitos Consultora, Atlas Intel, Aresco, Proyección Consultores, Opinaia, CELAG, Giacobbe & Asociados, Federico Gonzalez y Asociados, Analogias, Consultora Tendencias, Opinion Lab, Analogias, DC Consultores, OPSA, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.