Light Dovish Bias On Macro Data, Heavy Data Slate Eyed

Little net movement in FOMC-dated OIS since the middle of the London morning, with the softer-than-expected macro data (in the form of Japanese & UK Q4 GDP and Australian labour market prints) providing the headline inputs thus far, although the related moves have faded from dovish session extremes.

• ~98bp of cuts are showing through ’24 at present, with that marker operating either side of Wednesday’s post-Goolsbee dovish extremes (range from the time just ahead of the CPI print is 113bp down to 85bp of cuts).
• Further forwards, ~11.5bp of cuts are priced through the May ’24 FOMC, while ~29bp of cuts are seen through the June ’24 FOMC.
• Late on Wednesday we saw Fed Governor Barr note that he's confident inflation is on a path to the central bank's 2% target, but he stressed that more data is needed before interest rates can be lowered.
• Weekly jobless claims and retail sales data headlines the NY docket today, with the latest Philly Fed & Empire manufacturing surveys also due. Elsewhere, Fedspeak from Waller will cross (although it is on the topic of the USD’s international role).