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GILTS: Light Outperformance For Front End

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilt futures below settlement levels, -9 at 90.92.

  • The technical trend condition in the contract remains bearish, although yesterday’s notable rally increases the risk to that trend.
  • Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (91.27) protects the 20-day EMA (91.55).
  • A break above the latter would promote a deeper recovery.
  • Yields flat to 2bp lower, front end outperforms.
  • 2s10s and 5s30s below cycle highs.
  • Feedthrough from yesterday’s dovish comments from BoE’s Taylor and slightly softer-than-expected GDP data promoting some light outperformance in the front end.
  • Light dovish flow in GBP STIRs since our last update, given the above inputs.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 58bp of cuts vs. 56bp in our pre-gilt open update.
  • SONIA futures last flat to +4.0.
  • Retail sales data, due Friday, presents the only release of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend. That print shouldn’t have much impact on BoE policy.
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Gilt futures below settlement levels, -9 at 90.92.

  • The technical trend condition in the contract remains bearish, although yesterday’s notable rally increases the risk to that trend.
  • Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (91.27) protects the 20-day EMA (91.55).
  • A break above the latter would promote a deeper recovery.
  • Yields flat to 2bp lower, front end outperforms.
  • 2s10s and 5s30s below cycle highs.
  • Feedthrough from yesterday’s dovish comments from BoE’s Taylor and slightly softer-than-expected GDP data promoting some light outperformance in the front end.
  • Light dovish flow in GBP STIRs since our last update, given the above inputs.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 58bp of cuts vs. 56bp in our pre-gilt open update.
  • SONIA futures last flat to +4.0.
  • Retail sales data, due Friday, presents the only release of note on the UK calendar ahead of the weekend. That print shouldn’t have much impact on BoE policy.