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Likud Risks Slump If Netanyahu Replaced According To Polls

ISRAEL

Amidst an internal power struggle within the main opposition Likud party, pollster Maagar Mahot has run a series of hypothetical polls with different Likud figures as party leader to gague where support would trend should long-term leader Benjamin Netanyahu leave his position as party head.

  • Seat projection at present with Netanyahu as leader: Likud (Conservative): 33, Yesh Atid (YA, Liberal): 18, Blue and White (B&W, Centrist): 11 (+2), Shas (Haredi|Right): 9 (+1), Religious Zionisim (RZ, Right): 8 (+1), Labor (Centre-Left): 8, United Torah Judaism (UTJ, Hared/Right): 7 (-1), Yamina (Right): 6, Yisrael Beiteinu (YB, Right): 6, Joint List (JL, Arab/Left): 5 (-2), Meretz (Green): 5, Ra'am (Islamist): 4 (-1). Fieldwork 10 Jan, 502 respondents. +/- vs. 21 November 2021
  • Scenario: Nir Barkat as Likud leader: Likud: 31 (-2), YA: 15 (-3), Shas: 12 (+3), RZ: 12 (+4), B&W: 8 (-3), Labor: 8, UTJ: 7, YB: 6, JL: 6 (+1), Meretz: 6 (+1), Yamina: 5 (-1), Ra'am: 4. +/- vs. headline poll.
  • Scenario: Gilad Erdan as Likud leader: Likud: 22 (-11), YA: 16 (-2), Shas: 13 (+4), RZ: 13 (+5), B&W: 10 (-1), Labor: 8, UTJ: 7, YB: 6, JL: 6 (+1), Meretz: 6 (+1), Ra'am: 5 (+1), Yamina: 4 (-2), New Hope (NH, Right): 4 (+4). +/- vs. headline poll
  • Scenario: Miri Regev as Likud leader: YA: 17 (-1), Likud: 15 (-18), Shas: 14 (+5), RZ: 13 (+5), B&W: 12 (+1), Labor: 8, Meretz: 7 (+2), Yamina: 6, YB: 6, JL: 6 (+1), Ra'am: 5 (+1), NH: 4 (+4). +/- vs. headline poll
  • Scenario: Yuli Edelstein as Likud leader: YA: 17 (-1), Shas: 14 (+5), RZ: 14 (+6), Likud: 13 (-20), B&W: 13 (+2), Labor: 8, UTJ: 7, YB: 7 (+1), Yamina: 6, JL: 6 (+1), Meretz: 6 (+1), Ra'am: 5 (+1), NH: 4 (+4). +/- vs. headline poll.
  • Scenario: Israel Katz as Likud leader YA: 16 (-2), Shas: 15 (+6), RZ: 15 (+7), Likud: 13 (-20), B&W: 12 (+1), Labor: 8, Yamina: 7 (+1), UTJ: 7, YB: 6, JL: 6 (+5), Meretz: 6 (+1), Ra'am: 5 (+1), NH: 4 (+4). +/- vs. headline poll
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