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Limited Bounce In Mortgage Applications After A Near 50bp Decline In Rates

US DATA
  • As was to be mostly expected, MBA 30Y conforming mortgage rates fell a further 20bps last week to 7.41%, in keeping with the rally in long-end Treasuries (the spread to the 10Y held at ~300bps).
  • The 30Y has now fallen 49bps since the Oct 20 peak of 7.90%, generating three weeks of increases but only worth a modest 8.5% lift for overall applications (latest week 3.0%) with purchase applications rising 10.5% vs refis 5.3%.
  • Within the details, the spread of the 30Y jumbo to the regular conforming rate has dropped further to -10bps to push closer to its lowest since -10bps in June at levels otherwise last seen in Aug’21. The narrowing in the (at the time) positive spread around the time of regional banking woes in March was considered a sign of tightening lending standards.

MBA 30y (white), 10Y Tsy yield (pink), spread (red) and level of purchase applications (green)Source: Bloomberg

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