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Limited Safety Buffer and Volatility Risk from Tight Gas Market

NATURAL GAS

The gas market is expected to remain tight in 2024 from a supply perspective despite the easing tensions this year, with a limited safety buffer and risk of heightened volatility according to IEA Analyst Greg Molnar via LinkedIn.

  • The missing piped Russian gas supplies will only be recovered towards 2025-26 when the major US and Qatari LNG projects will be online.
  • Russian pipeline supplies to Europe fell by 120bcm in 2022-23 which equated to over 20% of global LNG trade.
  • Liquefaction capacity increased by less than 40bcm/y in 2022-23. The increase could be well-below 20bcm in 2024 with the delay of Golden Pass Train 1 and with uncertainties surrounding Arctic 2 LNG.
  • The “gas markets will need more time (and more volumes) to recover from the 2022-23 supply shocks.”


Source: IEA

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