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Lira Firms 2.43% vs the USD W/W, CBRT Expected to Hit Pause on the Cut Cycle

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades -0.49% lower this morning, broadly in line with sustained selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross pared most of Wednesday’s breakout lower and remains in uncertain territory ahead of next week’s CBRT.
  • The decline in UST yields have helped ease pressure on Turkey’s deeply negative real yields in the near-term, but the medium to longer-term optics on TRY assets remain challenging.
  • Uptake in FX-linked deposits remains low among citizens, but has yet to be gauged among corporates.
  • Market consensus is that inflation is set to rise above 50% in 2022 and remain sticky around 30-40% into year-end, given Erdogan’s refusal to hike interest rates.
  • The CBRT is broadly expected to keep policy on hold next week, with markets focused on phraseology regarding the path of inflation.
  • Local house sales and expected inflation data are on the agenda for today alongside US retail sales as the focal point for international markets – expected to show a marginal decline.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.4262, Sup2: 13.1653, Res1: 13.6614, Res2: 13.7261
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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