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Lira Option Volatility Surges as Traders Re-Price FX Trajectory

TURKEY
  • One-month volatility on the lira has shot up north of 41%, meaning straddles on that expiry are pricing in a decline in the currency to as much as 13.6818 per dollar.
  • Three-month volatility on a closing basis is at the highest since 2018, factoring in the possibility of a slump to 14.8364 per dollar.
  • The term structure of volatility has inverted, reflecting the markets' angst, while the skew is heavily slanted toward USD/TRY calls.

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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