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Lira Pauses for Breath at 16.00, but More Weakness Likely Ahead

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades +0.11% higher this morning, just shy 0f the 16.00 handle.
  • The cross has paused somewhat around the level, but is expected to push through with little positive factors to offset the gloomy medium to longer-term Turkish outlook.
  • Erdogan is holding firm on blocking Sweden/Finland’s NATO bid, but risks creating frictions with the West if it pushes the envelope too far.
  • Again, another delicate balancing act for Erdogan. A move above the 16.00 handle opens up 16.21 and 16.50 to the upside.
  • Global risk-off and rising energy prices should continue to keep the lira under pressure into the end of the week.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.9347, Sup2: 15.8838, Res1: 16.07, Res2: 16.21
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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