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Little change for BOE expectations: CPI only saw very minor surprise

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  • With services CPI in line with the Bank's February MPR forecasts (after a -0.1ppt miss last month), we think that there will be very little impact on the MPC decision, and that we will continue to see a 1-6-2 vote split with no material changes to the guidance. Indeed, as flagged above, headline CPI is a tenth lower than BOE forecasts.
  • And in terms of analyst expectations, we had noted that 9/19 analysts previews that we read rounded to 3.4%Y/Y or lower headline CPI anyway. While 7/15 analysts had expected services CPI at 6.1%Y.Y or higher. So the median expectation was almost spot on.

For our full BOE preview see.

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  • With services CPI in line with the Bank's February MPR forecasts (after a -0.1ppt miss last month), we think that there will be very little impact on the MPC decision, and that we will continue to see a 1-6-2 vote split with no material changes to the guidance. Indeed, as flagged above, headline CPI is a tenth lower than BOE forecasts.
  • And in terms of analyst expectations, we had noted that 9/19 analysts previews that we read rounded to 3.4%Y/Y or lower headline CPI anyway. While 7/15 analysts had expected services CPI at 6.1%Y.Y or higher. So the median expectation was almost spot on.

For our full BOE preview see.