Little Change In Fed Pricing On Data

Little net reaction in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data.

• That leaves ~31bp of cuts priced through ’24, with ~20.5bp of easing showing through the November meeting.
• In terms of the key takeaways, some of the major JOLTS metrics continue to converge with pre-COVID norms (even with headline job openings remaining comfortably above pre-pandemic levels).
• Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing survey saw a miss in the headline activity reading, along with a firmer round of prices paid data (akin to the MNI Chicago PMI and Q1 GDP data seen in recent sessions).
• The mixed details of the ISM manufacturing survey explain the contained market reaction, in our view.