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Little Change In Fed Pricing On Data

STIR

Little net reaction in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data.

  • That leaves ~31bp of cuts priced through ’24, with ~20.5bp of easing showing through the November meeting.
  • In terms of the key takeaways, some of the major JOLTS metrics continue to converge with pre-COVID norms (even with headline job openings remaining comfortably above pre-pandemic levels).
  • Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing survey saw a miss in the headline activity reading, along with a firmer round of prices paid data (akin to the MNI Chicago PMI and Q1 GDP data seen in recent sessions).
  • The mixed details of the ISM manufacturing survey explain the contained market reaction, in our view.
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Little net reaction in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the JOLTS and ISM manufacturing data.

  • That leaves ~31bp of cuts priced through ’24, with ~20.5bp of easing showing through the November meeting.
  • In terms of the key takeaways, some of the major JOLTS metrics continue to converge with pre-COVID norms (even with headline job openings remaining comfortably above pre-pandemic levels).
  • Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing survey saw a miss in the headline activity reading, along with a firmer round of prices paid data (akin to the MNI Chicago PMI and Q1 GDP data seen in recent sessions).
  • The mixed details of the ISM manufacturing survey explain the contained market reaction, in our view.