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Little Change In Rate Path, Current Voters Ahead

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rate path marginally lower overnight. 17bp hike for May 3, whilst the first cut from current levels is fully priced for Nov (-32bp) with 51bp of cuts to 4.32% at year-end.
  • Latest Fedspeak from Bostic (’24 voter) doesn’t move the dial, in line with median dot (can “hit mark and hold” with one more hike).
  • Goolsbee (’23 voter) speaks for the second time this week to CNBC as retail sales are released, closely followed by Gov Waller (voter) on the economic outlook with text + Q&A. Goolsbee called for patience and prudence in light of bank stress earlier this week, Waller said Apr 1 that the Fed should be able to bring inflation back to its 2% target without a sharp rise in the u/e rate whilst inflation expectations remain well anchored, but otherwise last spoke Mar 2.


Source: Bloomberg

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