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Little Changed, Apr-29 Supply Today, CPI Monthly On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -0.5) are slightly cheaper after US tsys finished Friday little changed. US tsys were richer early amid a rally in EGBs following softer PMIs. However, the gains in US tsys were erased after stronger-than-expected US PMIs and home sales. The market recovered through the NY afternoon amid haven demand into the weekend with ongoing geopolitical concerns.

  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -4bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher.
  • The bill strip pricing is flat to -1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • This week, the local calendar will see the sale of A$900mn of the 3.25% Apr-29 bond today, Westpac Consumer Confidence tomorrow and May’s CPI Monthly on Wednesday.
  • Economists caution that the CPI Monthly is only partial data, but even so, it will provide insight into how services inflation is unfolding through the June quarter. Consensus forecasts for the May indicator suggest an acceleration in the annual inflation pace to 3.8 per cent in May, from 3.6 per cent in April (per AFR).
  • RBA Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), will give a speech at the ABA Banking Conference on Wednesday.
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