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Little Changed, Awaiting US CPI

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.0) are little changed after dealing in relatively narrow ranges during the Sydney session after trade balance data, as expected, failed to be a market-moving event.

  • With US CPI due later today, local participants are likely to stay on the sidelines unless US tsy dealings in today's Asia-Pac dictate otherwise. Currently, cash US tsys are trading ~1bp richer.
  • Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in December, with risk seen to the downside. If analysts are correct, supercore trend rates are likely to remain very strong at 4% annualised handles but treat with some caution as differences in methodology have seen core PCE at notably weaker rates in recent months. (see MNI’s US CPI Preview here)
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 1bp wider at +11bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing flat to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings.
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