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Little Changed In Asia; On Track For Higher Weekly Close

GOLD

Gold sits ~$1/oz weaker, printing ~$1,788/oz at writing. The precious metal operates around the bottom of Thursday’s range at typing, backing away from recently-made five-week highs, but remaining on course to close higher for a fourth consecutive week, drawing support from a continued pullback in the USD (DXY) from cycle highs observed in mid-July.

  • While comments from San Fran Fed Pres Daly (‘24 voter) earlier in the session provoked little reaction in gold (with her delivered remarks providing little fresh insight after her FT interview on Thursday), Daly emphasised the need to not get “head-faked” by the recent better-than-expected CPI print, pointing to further employment and inflation data due before the next FOMC due in September.
  • Sep FOMC dated OIS now price in ~60bp of tightening, pointing to greater odds of a 50bp hike at that meeting (vs. odds for a 75bp hike), little changed from levels observed a week ago prior to the hot NFP print on Friday.
  • From a technical perspective, gold’s recent breach of trendline resistance (~$1,794.6/oz) has signalled a firmer tone for the yellow metal. Initial resistance is located at $1,807.9/oz (Aug 10 high and the bull trigger), while support is seen at $1,754.4 (Aug 3 low, key short-term support).
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Gold sits ~$1/oz weaker, printing ~$1,788/oz at writing. The precious metal operates around the bottom of Thursday’s range at typing, backing away from recently-made five-week highs, but remaining on course to close higher for a fourth consecutive week, drawing support from a continued pullback in the USD (DXY) from cycle highs observed in mid-July.

  • While comments from San Fran Fed Pres Daly (‘24 voter) earlier in the session provoked little reaction in gold (with her delivered remarks providing little fresh insight after her FT interview on Thursday), Daly emphasised the need to not get “head-faked” by the recent better-than-expected CPI print, pointing to further employment and inflation data due before the next FOMC due in September.
  • Sep FOMC dated OIS now price in ~60bp of tightening, pointing to greater odds of a 50bp hike at that meeting (vs. odds for a 75bp hike), little changed from levels observed a week ago prior to the hot NFP print on Friday.
  • From a technical perspective, gold’s recent breach of trendline resistance (~$1,794.6/oz) has signalled a firmer tone for the yellow metal. Initial resistance is located at $1,807.9/oz (Aug 10 high and the bull trigger), while support is seen at $1,754.4 (Aug 3 low, key short-term support).