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Little Disinflationary Progress Expected In July

EUROZONE

From our July Eurozone inflation preview (published yesterday, PDF here):

  • We await a published consensus for July flash inflation out next Monday - the figures below are from the initial analyst previews we have seen.
  • A 5.4% core HICP outturn per the MNI median of analysts (range of 5.2-5.7%) would represent only limited disinflation from June's 5.5%. While we haven't seen many estimates for monthly inflation, a 5.4% Y/Y core reading would imply around 0.4% M/M - in other words, little or no discernible downturn vs June's 0.4%.
  • Headline is seen decelerating more sharply, to a median 5.2% Y/Y from June's 5.5% (with a relatively narrower range of estimates from 5.1-5.3%).


Source: MNI July Eurozone Inflation Preview

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