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Little Impact In Euribor From German Data; Eurozone Inflation Headlines Regional Calendar

STIR
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures are little changed through the blues.

  • German retail sales were weaker than expected in April, though firmer-than-expected monthly import prices will have countered when it comes to market reaction.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 61bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, broadly in line with yesterday afternoon’s levels.
  • There are 24bps of easing priced for next week’s meeting, and just 3bp of sequential cuts priced for the July gathering. The market is listening to recent ECB-speak, which has generally played down the odds of back-to-back rate cuts.
  • Today’s regional calendar is headlined by Eurozone May flash inflation. The national prints received so far (most recently the Netherlands this morning), suggest possible upside risks to the headline HICP forecast of 2.5% Y/Y. French flash inflation data is due at 0745BST.
  • The ECB is in its pre-meeting quiet period, meaning any scheduled Governing Council appearances should not touch on monetary policy matters.
  • However, we note that any interviews conducted before the quiet period may still be published in the coming days.
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Euribor futures are little changed through the blues.

  • German retail sales were weaker than expected in April, though firmer-than-expected monthly import prices will have countered when it comes to market reaction.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 61bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, broadly in line with yesterday afternoon’s levels.
  • There are 24bps of easing priced for next week’s meeting, and just 3bp of sequential cuts priced for the July gathering. The market is listening to recent ECB-speak, which has generally played down the odds of back-to-back rate cuts.
  • Today’s regional calendar is headlined by Eurozone May flash inflation. The national prints received so far (most recently the Netherlands this morning), suggest possible upside risks to the headline HICP forecast of 2.5% Y/Y. French flash inflation data is due at 0745BST.
  • The ECB is in its pre-meeting quiet period, meaning any scheduled Governing Council appearances should not touch on monetary policy matters.
  • However, we note that any interviews conducted before the quiet period may still be published in the coming days.