Little in the way of activity for German FI...>

BUNDS: Little in the way of activity for German FI futures overnight, with

Schatz unch., Bobls +0.010 and Bunds +0.05.

- Focus is squarely on today's ECB MonPol decision. Although there is a strong

case for the ECB to deliver a new TLTRO to avoid a 'funding cliff' for Eurozone

banks, this is likely to still be in the discussion stage. Assuming that the ECB

uses the March meeting merely to signal that TLTRO extension is in the pipeline,

the focus will shift to the official forecasts. Downgrades to GDP growth and

inflation are unavoidable in light of the deterioration in economic activity.

However, significant revisions to the 2020/2021 projections are unlikely as this

would signal a significant shift in monetary policy.

- That being said, EGBs drew support from a BBG sources story, released

Wednesday, which suggested that the scale of the ECB's economic forecast

adjustments could warrant new TLTROs.

- Peripheral spreads narrowed vs. Bunds on the news.