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Little Movement In EUR STIRs, A Touch Over 70bp Of '24 Cuts Priced

STIR
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures hold onto yesterday’s losses, flat to -2.5 through the blues.

  • ECB-dated OIS trades in a similar manner, last showing ~21bp of cuts through the June meeting and ~72bp of cuts through year end, in line with levels that we flagged late yesterday.
  • ECB-speak from Schnabel, Vujcic, Lagarde, Nagel & Panetta is due today. Don’t expect a meaningful change in tone, with the GC already guiding heavily towards a June cut.
  • Divisions remain apparent when it comes to views beyond the June meeting, with many not willing to pre-commit to a prescribed easing path as they underscore the need for data dependence.
  • Thursday’s European data calendar doesn’t contain any major releases.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.699-21.2
Jul-243.594-31.7
Sep-243.422-48.9
Oct-243.333-57.8
Dec-243.196-71.6
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Euribor futures hold onto yesterday’s losses, flat to -2.5 through the blues.

  • ECB-dated OIS trades in a similar manner, last showing ~21bp of cuts through the June meeting and ~72bp of cuts through year end, in line with levels that we flagged late yesterday.
  • ECB-speak from Schnabel, Vujcic, Lagarde, Nagel & Panetta is due today. Don’t expect a meaningful change in tone, with the GC already guiding heavily towards a June cut.
  • Divisions remain apparent when it comes to views beyond the June meeting, with many not willing to pre-commit to a prescribed easing path as they underscore the need for data dependence.
  • Thursday’s European data calendar doesn’t contain any major releases.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.699-21.2
Jul-243.594-31.7
Sep-243.422-48.9
Oct-243.333-57.8
Dec-243.196-71.6